Preseson

Opening Day of The SOMBILLA’s 46^th season is Sunday, November 2^nd! Remember that Daylight Saving Time ends that day, so set your clocks back one hour.

------>>>>> Predictions <<<<<-------

Seven league managers submitted predictions! This year’s picks courtesy of the combined brainpower of Tom, Harold, Jed, Eric, Sam, Arnie and Robin. Thanks to all who participated.

1. Harold (New Orleans) – There’s almost no point in picking him first because he’ll pick himself last and completely skew the predictions…The team with by far the highest win total in any individual simulated season, so there is great potential…How many intentional walks will Judge get?...This is a great team!...Harold has the deepest rotation but his offense is surprisingly weak considering he has the best offensive player by far in the SOMBILLA…. Typically amazing bullpen, and his rotation is not too shabby either…Judge won the MVP in all my simulations…Over/Under 30 wins…Pitching and relief pitching will carry him far in the playoffs and I predict a World Series upset….Reminds me of those Billy Beane A’s teams in the 2000’s – great regular seasons followed by post-season flops... Can this team withstand impending PED and gambling scandals?…Judge and Rooker provide tremendous power in the heart of the order…Excellent starting pitching led by Glasnow, Sale and Blanco…Tons of relief - Clase and the limited Estevez are arguably the 2 best relievers in the league…Judge, Rooker, Schwarber, Sale, Wheeler, Glasnow… Firepower and pitching will put this team into the postseason…Not a very good team…Can field a top notch defense as well…. Classic Harold pen. Beats CN in a 7 game World Series…This will be his year…It is the year of Cajun food…Will lose to Tom in the World Series.

2. Eric (Madaket) – Over/Under 29 wins…Not a very good team… Skubal unhittable since being salsa-ed. Am considering preemptively salsa-ing my entire rotation…Soto, Ozuna and Alvarez make for quite a gauntlet… Will come in second again…Eric has a plus offense (3^rd best) with a handful of stars…Nice to NOT see Wander Franco on the roster, but presence of Ozuna makes it hard to cheer for this team…Amazing pen, amazing starters, good D (if you look past Y Alvarez in left)…Loses in the World Series for the second year in a row…Tom's hitters could scare the Madaket's staff for a potential upset in the first round of the playoffs, but Eric's starting pitching should get him to the Series...Lefty reliever Holton(!) won the Cy Young in one of my simulations…Best rotation in the league but is it too left-handed?...Gilbert won the Cy Young in one of my simulations…His deep starting rotation headed by Skubal will carry him far this year…I feel the top three teams are very close, with Harold and Eric having the best pitching staffs in the league…Is Eric going to play a 5 in LF everyday?...Skubal, Gilbert, Valdez, Crochet and King arguably the best set of starting pitchers in the league (though 3 are lefties…)…Three great hitters, and then nothing. An imbalanced offense will be his downfall…Relief is pretty good - better than average…Decent defense as well…This is a great team!...

3. Robin (Bay City) – She and her husband have the two best teams, but she has more all-around players…Over/Under 28 wins… Four solid hitters. Witt is dreamy. Vlad, Teo and Correa round out a good but not-so-quite-murderous-row, but it won’t be enough…Forced to use a 1 SS at DH (is this the definition of a First World problem?)…What a great team!...Rotation is Skenes and Snell then two days of hell…Robin and Arnie will battle for the final playoff spot with Robin's pitching proving to be the difference…I'm not predicting Robin to finish last this year so maybe she won't whoop my ass as usual...Pitching, it’s Skenes and Burnes, and…that won’t be enough, either…Went from lineup being too left-handed last year to being too right-handed this year…Got tired of saying "Why can't I get players like that?" so went out and re-drafted BC players…Bay City's top two starters could put a scare into New Orleans in the first round of the playoffs, providing a potential upset, but Harold's hitting should allow him to prevail…Robin has the best position players, barely edging out Arnie and has two top starters to drive her team through the playoffs…And they’re cute, too…Cornering the market on poor-hitting Curacaoans…Skenes will be fun but the rest of the starting staff is subpar...She just has a top position player at every position and then Skenes and Snell to carry the pitching…Could squeeze into the 4th spot?...Witt has MVP potential and the lineup has a few other solid contributors. Solid relief staff. Defense isn't awful (and Witt is a 1 at SS)…Not a very good team.

4t. Tom (Constantinople) – Has his worse team of the decade (<--guess who’s comment that was)…Loses in World Series to Harold in 7…May win some home games… No clear choice for final playoff team, but picking him 4^th...I don’t get Tom. All last spring, leading up the draft, he made declarations that his team will not be contending. He may have the toughest lineup in the league! But, he may be on to something. His pitching seems almost as bad as his offense is good. I’ve been there. Which is out of the playoffs…Over/Under 30.5 wins…How many intentional walks will Ohtani get?...At the end of the day his pitching and his unbalanced offense will betray him….The strongest starting lineup in the league, anchored by Ohtani…A return to relentlessness...Outwardly denigrates his chances as always. Then he kicks our asses. As always…Will probably be involved in a lot of games with scores like 10-8 …Tom's offense is second only to Arnie's, but his pitching will keep him from the promised land…Starting pitching average but having an ace who is a starred starter (Lugo) is worth a lot…Lugo won the Cy Young in one of my simulations…Probably glad he didn't trade Devers for a box of baseballs…This is a great team!...Relief staff a bit thin. Defense a bit worse than average…Somehow this all added up to the best team in both Jed’s and Arnie’s simulations…Not a very good team.

4t. Arnie (North Dakota) - I’m digging the depth and versatility of this guy’s offense. No superstars, but All-Stars. Solid. Same with the pitching. This is an Arnie team. He’s like Sam, mixing and matching and somehow making it work. A lineup chef… All his starters will be much better next season… This is a great team!...A cursory look makes the battle of the best offenses between Robin and Arnie, with Arnie having the edge in lefty power and overall ball-park power… Looks like the Bailey Ober Experiment lost its funding…Better than average starting lineup…Arnie has the best power offense this year especially from the left side but just dominates across the board… Lineup tough against lefties. Worse than average starting pitching...Do Woo and Lopez have enough innings to allow them to get into a worthwhile playoff rotation?...Tom, I’m still interested in Devers, especially since you think it’s your worst team of the decade…. Nice Contrarii catching tandem…Average relief staff…Defense has some bright spots (e.g. Lindor, Betts and Kwan) but could stand improvement…This team could sneak into the playoffs if Tom panics early…Over/Under 29 wins…Great hitters, but nobody seems to realize the best ones (including Tucker and Yelich) are all limited. That’s enough to keep them out of the playoffs…Not a very good team.

6. Jed (Oceanus) - This is a great team!... Marte and Ramirez, Suzuki and Buxton. That won’t cut it. …Jed is playing stars and scrubs (SOMBILLA-wise) in the offense with Ketel, J Ram and J Rod just a scary three…Can good hitting compensate for lack of pitching?... Relief is shockingly thin. If you can ever get to the bullpen…Tho Cease, Schwellenbach and Greene are intriguing for a law firm…Some good young players who will be better next season/had off-years…Lamanna screws him over, yet again…One year, it’ll happen. Like, a Robin year…Decent lineup…Shitty hitting catchers…This (s)crappy squad offers a lot of flexibility and is better than average in most respects other than relief pitching…No longer has anyone on his roster that will cause me to say "Why can't I get players like that?"…His penchant for ballpark extremism will do him in, yet again…At the end of the day his pitching will betray him…Has a plethora of 1 CFs…Over/Under 29.5 wins…Not a very good team…Will lose in a one-game playoff (to Eric) for 4^th place.

7. Randy (Future Wax) – Simply a lack of star power in the lineup…I feel bad about this [picking him last]…Wax has one of the top 3 depth rotations…Cornering the market on players named Cruz (and Crews)…This is a great team!...He’s got some thumpers, but not average, which may cost him…Over/Under 24 wins…Joc Pederson is great, and Adames is very good. Houck is a fine SP. But that’s it…The starting rotation is possibly the weakest in the league…Pretty good rotation but just not enough of anything other than base-stealers/good lead getters…Other than a few good relievers, it’s a young staff, but with a future. This year though, opponents will feast…Has two DH-only players who both only hit righties…The relief staff is acceptable…His offense will hold him back as he battles all year for the #4 spot and a trip to the playoffs…Not a very good team…Good infield defense, not so good outfield defense…Poor Randy…Will see this pre-season newsletter in January when he opens up his October emails.

8. Sam (Neverwinter) – World Series hangover this year; will finish last, setting up for another worst to first run next year… Unlikely to repeat but shouldn't be a first-to-worst situation…Over/Under 24 wins…This is a great team!...Sam did an impressive job of filling holes via the draft but there were too many holes…His philosophy of only drafting one-year wonders with great cards won him the championship but is not sustainable…Pretty good defense but underwhelming hitting and pitching…Since Sam gets more from his mid-level players than anyone, and he’s the defending champ, I’m gonna keep my trap shut. And he’s got a kid named Gunner. But… But… I just don’t see it. Offensively, anyway…Consolation prize for not making the playoffs is designation as second cutest team (led by Gunnar, Yaz, Fried [although the latter cuter as a Brave than a Yankee])…Not as bad as Randy’s team…There is just no depth…But there are a couple of top notch starters, an excellent relief staff and some fun players like Freeman and Henderson…Starting pitching is okay. The pen clearly is the strongest part of the team…with innings….Defense is acceptable….I don’t know…Not a very good team… Randy and I will be playing for the best chance at next year’s #1 pick, just like my golf game, going from last to first to last…If only Acuna could stay healthy.

Voting Summary. Votes were counted based on predicted postseason performance. So, someone who was chosen to win it all receives a first-place vote, WS loser a 2^nd place vote, etc. Points equal 1 for 1st, 2 for 2nd, etc. The fewer points the better.

1^st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

7th

8th

Total

Harold

Eric

Robin

Tom

Arnie

Jed

Randy

Sam

The ego report: One manager picked themselves 2^nd, two 3^rd, one 5^th, one 6^th, one 7^th, and one 8^th.

Current All-time stats (complete through 2024-2025 season)

Regular Season	W	L	Pct	Post-season	W	L	Pct
Randy	951	711	.572	Sam	19	11	.633
Tom	801	701	.533	Tom	68	54	.557
Arnie	1273	1130	.5298	Eric	103	86	.545
Jed	874	776	.5297	Randy	108	104	.509
Harold	1022	959	.515	Jed	76	81	.484
Eric	1190	1139	.511	Arnie	93	105	.470
Sam	142	138	.507	Robin	45	53	.459
Robin	1027	1238	.453	Harold	79	94	.457

Upcoming milestones this season:

· Eric needs 10 wins for 1200

· Jed needs 26 wins for 900, 24 losses for 800

· Arnie needs 27 wins for 1300

New league rules:

· The biggest change is to the injury rules:

· All injuries now 2 games (+ current game) max!

· Unlimited hitters (450+ PA) can still only be injured once per season

· Limited hitters (<450 PA) can now be injured twice per season, but each injury is capped at 2 games max (+ current game)

· In addition to the current days off (after games 20, 28, and 40), we now have days off after games 52 and 56.

· We also made some changes to starting pitching limits in the post-season.

Reminder about recent new league rules:

· We still use the blocking of the plate rule. (Technically not a new rule)

· 26-man rosters for each series, 27th man callup for last three series (game 45)

Ballpark limits for the upcoming season:

· Max BP HR differential between L and R: 9 (Baltimore)

· Max BP S differential between L and R: 9 (Washington)

· Ballpark singles more than ballpark homers, maximum: 14 (Fenway)

· Ballpark homers more than ballpark singles, maximum: 14 (Milwaukee)

A reminder too that all teams, not just the teams opening at home, must announce their ballparks by Opening Day, 11/2.

Starred starters this year:

Burnes, Gilbert, Kirby, Lugo, Nola, Webb, Wheeler
** Revised** Old rules worth repeating. Please take a few minutes to read these.

1. All teams have off days after games 20, 28, 40, 52, and 56. They count for both injuries and relief (and unstarred starters who pitch no more than 5 innings in the series before the off day).

2. Hitters can pitch! To save innings, use the hitter’s pitching card found in the official rules.

3. Three-out rule. The three-out period to determine when a relief pitcher is tired is a rolling 3-out period. That is, a reliever becomes weak after giving up 3 hits/walks during any consecutive three-out period after a pitcher’s point of weakness.

4. Starter tiredness. Starters are automatically tired at POW (tired factor) + 2 innings.

5. Reliever tiredness. If a reliever pitches 2 or more innings above his relief fatigue rating then he must rest one day before his next appearance. If he pitches 3 or more innings above his relief fatigue rating then he must rest two days before his next appearance. If a relief pitcher is used without the proper amount of rest, consider him fatigued for the entire outing.

6. Rainouts before games 1 and 3 of every series. Two dice are rolled. If snake eyes (a “2”) come up, there is a rainout. All pitchers get an extra day of rest (but no games actually postponed). The day-off/rainout rule also applies to injuries (counts as an injury day), and a one-game playoff, but not post-season (no rainouts in the post-season).

7. Holding a runner on 1st - 1B AND 2B or SS have defense rating go up 1 (e.g. 4e10 becomes 5e10).

8. Holding a runner on 2nd - subtract 4 from 2nd rating; must get good lead.

9. Holding and baserunning. When a runner is held on first or second, subtract 1 from running rating. If NOT being held, add 1 to running rating. With runners on 1^st and 2^nd, the rule applies to runner on 1^st, who is considered held if the lead runner is held.

10. Trail runners on throw home = speed + arm - 5.

11. Trail runners on throw to 3rd = automatic.

12. Lo(max) - 1-7 TRIPLE PLAY; 8-20 double play, lead runner out.

13. Tagup from 2nd. On fly (rf) B only, a runner at second base may advance: Running speed +/- right fielder's arm, +2 for a throw to third base from right field. The only OUT chance is a roll of 20. If the roll is higher than the highest safe chance, but not 20, the runner holds. Example: A 1-14 runner and a -1 arm. Safe 1-15; Hold 16-19; Out 20. This rule does not apply to fly (rf)B? readings from cards or to F2 readings from the fielding chart.

14. Squeeze and corners or infield in. With the bases loaded and the corners or infield positioned in, downgrade the bunting rating two levels instead of one level (e.g. A bunter becomes C bunter) for squeeze plays.

15. Low fences. Whenever there is a Homerun/Flyout split (from the cards or the ballpark chart), if the last number in the homerun range or the first number in the flyout range is rolled then the outfielder's ability will be checked with another roll of the 20-sided die. Refer to the following chart to determine which outfielder has a chance for the catch:

Batter Bats	Last number in HR range	First number in Flyout range
Left-handed	Rightfielder	Centerfielder
Right-handed	Leftfielder	Centerfielder

For instance, if the homer range is 1-14 and you roll a 14 or a 15 on the 20-sided die then you must roll the 20-sided die again and refer to the following chart to determine the outcome:

Outfielder's Rating	Homerun	Flyout
1	1-3	4-20
2	1-7	8-20
3	1-11	12-20
4	1-15	16-20
5	1-19	20

16. Blocking the plate. Whenever there is a play at the plate the catcher’s blocking ability comes into play if the last number in the safe range or the first number in the out range is rolled (sometimes referred to in the SOMBILLA as a ‘disputed call’). For example, if the safe range (after all adjustments have been made) is 1-14 and you roll a 14 or 15 on the 20-sided die, then you must roll the 20-sided die again and refer to the following chart to determine if the runner is safe or out:

Catcher’s Rating Safe Out

1 1-2 3-20

2 1-6 7-20

3 1-10 11-20

4 1-14 15-20

5 1-18 19-20

17. When the bases are loaded and the infield is in, a gb()A results in a home to first double play. Other runners advance one base.

18. gb()A, gb()B, or gb()C hit to 1b or 3b with runner on 1^st, 1^st and 2^nd, or 2^nd only, and corners are in, refer to infield in on the charts (because the fielder is in).

19. Non-Ohtani pitchers are not allowed to pinch-hit and can bat only when they are on the mound pitching in the game.

20. Relievers must face 3 batters unless they end the inning. If they start a new inning, they must face 3 batters total.