VOL. XXIV No. 2
August 4, 2013
Playoffs: North Dakota vs. Oceanus
Playoffs: The Cheddarmen vs. Future Wax
World Series: North Dakota vs. The Cheddarmen
Minutes of annual meeting March 30, 2013
Summer Study #1: Home/Away analysis
Summer Study #2: Best of the last 5 years
Summer Study #3: 2009 Draft analysis
Summer Study #4: Best players in the SOMBILLA
Summer Study #5: What if the SOMBILLA was a Rotisserie League
THE 2013 SOMBILLA/FOX SPORTS ALL-STAR COUNT
Ballparks
North Dakota vs. Oceanus (via the Internet February 27, 2013)
Background: North Dakota starts out only 9-7 in November, and on December 9, stands 10-10 and in 6th place. But the team reels off a league-record 12 wins in a row in late December/January (sweeping Eric, Harold and Jed in succession) and by January 29 has opened up a 3-game lead on Randy who thought there was a typo in the standings. The team finishes with a 10-6 February to capture its second consecutive first place finish.
Chosen 4th by the league before the season, Oceanus indeed finishes in 4th place, despite a lackluster 5-7 start that has Jed wallowing in 7th place. But series wins against ND and A51 highlight an 8-4 December that vaults Jed into third at 13-11 at the break. But then a sad January (8-12) has Jed tied for 4th at 21-23 heading into the final month of the season. In a huge showdown at Rehoboth Park on 2/3, Jed beats Robin 3 out of 4 games, which he follows by winning 3 of 4 against Randy a week later, and Oceanus has its playoff berth.
North Dakota beat Oceanus 5-3 in the season series, sweeping all 4 games at home. Due to Arnie’s schedule, it is believed to be the first playoff series ever held in February.
Game 1:
Oceanus 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 - 1 8 0
North Dakota 2 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 - 8 14 0
WP – Kennedy LP – Fister HR: ND - Ellsbury 2, Ortiz; OC - Holliday
ND came out blasting. Ellsbury homered on the first
pitch, and ND jumped to a 7-0 lead after three, shockingly tiring Fister, the
best starter for either team. Ellsbury ended up with 2 home runs and
Ortiz added another,
Game 2:
Oceanus 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 - 4 7 0
North Dakota 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 3 - 5 9 0
WP – Cueto LP – Price SV – Marshall HR: OC - Jennings
The game was not as close as the score
indicates. ND
had a 5-0 lead heading into the 9th (Napoli and Pujols 2 rbi
each). In a
misguided attempt to save relief innings, the ND manager pulled Adams
out of the game, whereupon Melancon and Marshall proceed to give up 4
runs in the 9th
inning to make it close. Cueto gave up only 1 hit in 5 1/3
innings.
Game 3:
North Dakota 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 - 3 11 0
Oceanus 2 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 - 4 9 0
WP – Shields LP – Haren SV – Salas HR: OC - Hardy
Switching to Rehobeth Parking Lot, and backs
against the
wall, it was 3-2 Jed after 2 innings (Hardy 2-run HR) and 4-3 after
5. Santos and Salas shut down ND with 3 innings of scoreless
relief.
Game 4:
North Dakota 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 - 0 4 0
Oceanus 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 - 1 5 0
WP – Fister LP - Kennedy
Rebounding from game 1, Doug Fister pitched a 4-hit shutout,
as frustrated ND hitters groused about the HR:1 ballpark dimensions. Jed
had now won 5 of 6 games against ND at home.
Game 5:
North Dakota 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 2 - 5 8 0
Oceanus 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 - 1 4 1
WP – Cueto LP – Beckett SV – Romo HR: ND – Ellsbury, Pujols
Johnny Cueto again pitched a masterful 5 innings of one-hit
shutout ball, while Johnson, Kimbrel, Adams and Romo combined to yield just 4
hits. Ellsbury and Pujols both homered.
Game 6:
Oceanus 0 2 0 0 1 0 2 0 0 0 0 1 - 6 10 0
North Dakota 0 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 - 5 9 0
WP – Salas LP – Melancon SV – Santos HR: OC - Jennings, D.Lee, Votto, Hardy; ND - Pedroia, Ortiz, H. Ramirez, Downs
ND went up early 5-2 on homers by Pedroia, Ramirez and
Ortiz. Hardy homered to make it 5-3 and then Jennings hit a huge 2-run
homer off Kimbrel in the 7th to tie it. Salas pitched the final 3 2/3
innings for OC giving up no hits to get the win. The Assholes won the
game when ND's Heath Bell walked in the go-ahead run in the top of the 12th.
Game 7:
Oceanus 1 0 2 0 0 1 0 0 0 - 4 8 0
North Dakota 6 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 - 8 12 1
WP – Kennedy LP – Fister SV – Romo HR: OC – Holliday; ND – Ellsbury, Pujols
In a stunning improvement over game 1, ND tired out Fister
in the very first inning, scoring 6 runs, including a 3-run blast by Pujols
(after Jed had taken a 1-0 lead in the top of the first). OC gamely kept
the score close, but ND's game 2 gambit paid off a little bit as Adams had
enough innings left to pitch the final 1 1/3 innings to nail it down.
Series MVP Ellsbury was 10-30 (.333), with 4 homers and 8 rbi.
The Cheddarmen vs. Future Wax (at Natick, March 9, 2013)
Background: The defending champion Cheddarmen jump out to a 7-5 November, trailing only Bay City by one game. Meanwhile FW stumbles out of the blocks at 7-9. But then the teams flip flop in December: Randy goes 11-1 (including sweeps over Harold and Tom) to take over first place at the break at 18-10, while Eric stumbles badly, going 3-9 and at the break is in 7th place at 10-14, 6 games out of first.
In January, again the teams reverse - Eric goes 15-5, which includes a season saving 7-1 at the bash at Jeff’s in January and he’s safely in the playoffs tied for 2nd with Randy, who goes 5-7 in the month A 7-5 February for Eric is enough to nose out Randy for 2nd place, as Randy needs to win 3 games from either Robin or Jeff to force a coin flip for 2nd, but he splits with both of them instead..
The teams split their season series, each team winning 3 games at home.
Game 1: The Cheddarmen 7 Future Wax 6
Kershaw vs. Verlander. Pence hits a 2-out 2-run shot in the first, and CM is off fast. After 4 it’s 3-0. In the 5th, Ackley hits a dinger for FW, cutting it to 3-1, but CM answers with one of their own in the bottom of the frame: Stubbs hits a solo blast. Bang! And that pretty much sums up the series. CM would get out to the early lead, or early big leads, and FW would claw back, only to see CM answer lickety-split. Example: so it’s 4-1 into the 7th, and FW does something very un-FW, scoring 3 runs on 2 singles, 1 hit batter, a walk, and a sac fly. But it’s a tie ball game. 7th inning stretch. Before you can get back to your seats, CM gets a single, single, double, sac fly from: Gonzalez, Young, Fielder and Tulo, and gets the 3 right back. Top of the 8th and Berkman and Braun go back-to-back off Masterson, and it’s a 1-run game again. But that would be that, fans. This is the game Kemp missed those two ball parks. Papelbon and Downs go 1-2-3 in the 9th, and CM holds on to win 7-6.
Game 2: The Cheddarmen 11 Future Wax 8
Collmenter vs. Weaver. This was wild. 11 pitchers, 19 runs, and the difference was a 3-run shot by Yadier Molina, even though it happened in the 3rd. That’s when he rolled a ballpark homer (1-2) to left (with a low fence), and rolls a 3. So out it soars to left-center, with Kemp (a 1) in pursuit. Chances of dropping one over Kemp? 1-3, and Molina rolls his 3. And in the end it’s an 11-8 win. But wait. Those 11 runs are scored through 5 innings, before FW scores any of their own. Weaver is masterful. Until the 6th, when FW puts an 8-spot on the board----and again, it’s a game. Right? Wrong. Smith, Motte and Betancourt pitch the remaining 3.3 innings, to go up 2-0.
Game 3: The Cheddarmen 5 Future Wax 2
Lincecum vs. McCarthy. So you’d think those two run-filled games in pitcher-friendly Cheddarland would just be prologue. Back in the Wax Dome, where Randy can stock his line-up with all those drooling righties. Except it didn’t turn out that way. For either team. Lincecum and McCarthy threw in/out/up/down for 7 innings (well, McCarthy for 6.3) and it was tied 1-1. But you gotta play D, too. That one run in the 4th by CM? It was un-earned, courtesy of 2-base error in right by Upton. The two that CM scored in the 8th to go up 3-1 were legit, with Fielder smacking a 2-out 2-run shot off Hamels. But the 2 nails-in-the-coffin runs that CM scored in the 9th? They came courtesy of a huge 2-out error by A. Ramirez and a hit off an x-roll to a lunging (but range-less) 1st basemen Ike Davis (if memory serves). FW puts up one run in the 9th off Aceves, but it’s too little too late.
Game 4: The Cheddarmen 8 Future Wax 6
Verlander vs. Kershaw. At this point Randy is just fed up, and who can blame him. It’s 1-1 through 4 when CM throws up a quick 3, the killer blow coming on a 2-run triple by Michael Young. FW gets one back in the bottom of the frame, but CM puts up another in the 6th and two in the 7th, and it’s a snoozer game 4, right?, with CM up 7-2 in the bottom of the 7th. But FW answers with 4 runs on a one-run triple by Upton, a 2-run shot by Kemp, and a solo blast from Berkman, and it’s 7-6 and still a game. But CM answers FW yet again, getting one of those runs back and giving the relievers the insurance they need. Motte and Smith close out the 8th and 9th, and it’s on to to series for CM.
The Cheddarmen win series 4 games to 0.
So much for pitching. But what do you expect facing the Wax? All the games were close, to a point. Here’s odd stat #1: the Wax held a lead for 3 innings the whole series, in game three, 1-0. Here’s odd stat #2: SOMBILLA MVP and Triple Crown winner Matt Kemp went 2 for 17, with one homer (in game 4, pulling the Wax within two in the seventh), 2 RBI’s (on said homer) and two missed ballparks, in game 1, in Cheddarland.
World Series
North Dakota vs The Cheddarmen (at Plymouth, March 16, 2013)
Background:
Coming into the series,
Eric had won 6 straight post-season appearances vs. ND, going back to 1985, and
had won 20 of the last 25 post-season games played between the two teams since
1990. During the week leading up to the match, the usual trash talking ND
manager had gone silent. So Eric emailed Arnie. Arnie
responded with the missive: "Fuck you. Don't talk to me."
He spent the days leading up to the World Series building up a rage against his
opponent, the "SOMBILLA bully." He imagined hitting a huge
3-run homer and then getting in Eric's face, "and THAT one is for Robin in
last year's World Series!!"
Of course, there was no real animosity on game day, just two focused, friendly
rivals. Indeed, Arnie did a long Yoga session in the morning to help
focus and clear his mind.
Game 1:
R H E
The Cheddarmen 0 0 0 0 0 2 4 0 0 6 9 0
North Dakota 0 0 2 2 0 6 2 0 12 15 0
WP – Kennedy LP – Masterson HR: CH – M. Cabrera; ND – Ortiz, Pedroia
North Dakota came out hitting, building a 4-0 lead by the 4th
inning (Big Papi with a 2-run single in the 3rd and 2 runs on 3 hits in the
4th) against surprise starter Masterson (a decision that Eric hoped would
fluster ND). There was no flustering – indeed Arnie was pleased to see the
(relatively speaking compared to Eric’s other starters) crappy starter in
there. After Eric closed the gap to 4-2 in the 6th, Pedroia and D. Ortiz
each hit 3-run homers to make it 10-2 in the bottom of the 6th. Eric
scored 4 more in the 7th on 5 hits to make it 10-6, but got no closer.
Game 2:
R H E
The Cheddarmen 4 1 1 0 0 0 2 0 0 8 15 0
North Dakota 0 0 0 0 1 2 2 0 1 6 6 1
WP – Verlander LP – Cueto HR: CH – Tulowitzki; ND – Morse, Pujols, M. Downs, Pedroia
Arnie had assumed that CH
would simply roll on his hitters' cards all series, piling up runs, as he
usually does in the post-season. In fact, just as he did against Randy a
week earlier. Arnie’s over/under for Cheddarmen runs in the top of the first
inning of game 1 was 2. Arnie was off by a game, but should have taken
the over. Tulowitzki's 3-run blast made it a 4-0 CH lead after one
inning, which grew to 6-0 after three. ND closed to 6-3 (Morse and Pujols
homers) and 8-6 (Downs and Pedroia homers) but could never close the gap and
the series is tied heading to Sandover Field, Eric's pitcher's park.
Game 3:
R H E
North Dakota 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 3 5 11 0
The Cheddarmen 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 2 7 3
WP – Melancon LP – S. Downs SV – Haren HR: ND – Wieters, CH - Pence
The wildest
game and key
game of the series. Both managers had terrific luck and
excruciatingly
bad luck, combining to use 15 pitchers. Cliff Lee and Weaver
match goose
eggs through 5 innings. In the top of the 6th, with 2 out,
Zimmerman (a "1")
and M. Young (2-base error) make back to back errors for Eric (whose
normally
solid D let him down in this series). M. Morse followed with a
huge 2-run
double and ND has a 2-0 lead. (Interestingly, Robin had sadly
remembered
her team falling apart defensively against Eric in last year's World
Series. Hah! Sweet revenge). Kimbrel, Bell, Marshall
and Adams keep Eric scoreless until the bottom of the 9th, still down
2-0 with only 4 hits.
Romo comes in for the save, Tulo singles and Hunter Pence cracks a
2-run blast
to tie the game. Konerko then has a chance to win the game on a
1-5 HR,
but misses. Little did Eric know, he would score only one more run the
rest of
the series. In the 11th, ND loaded the bases with nobody
out! But then
Aceves induces Pujols to hit a home-first DP and Motte gets M. Downs
out to end
the threat. In the top of the 12th, Eric’s Tulo boots a grounder
with one
out for Eric’s 3rd error of the game. Ellsbury singles.
Wieters, a
lefty-killer, is up against lefty S. Downs. Eric deliberates and
decides
to pitch to Wieters, who hits the 3-run homer. The only one left
in ND's
pen is Dan Haren, who pitches a 1-2-3 bottom of the 12th for the save.
Game 4:
R H E
North Dakota 0 3 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 4 7 1
The Cheddarmen 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 1
WP – Kennedy LP – Lincecum
World Series MVP Ian Kennedy
(2-0, 1.69), Kimbrel, J. Johnson, and Adams turn the tables on The Cheddarmen,
using Eric's pitcher's park to pitch a combined 4-hit shutout. Eric
missed a few BP homers, and also stranded three runners in the 6th, when
Kimbrel came on to get Melky C and Zimmerman. Would Eric have won this game in
North Dakota? We’ll never know.
Game 5:
R H E
North Dakota 1 0 1 0 0 0 3 0 0 5 9 1
The Cheddarmen 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 7 0
WP – Cueto LP = Verlander HR: ND - Ortiz
The karma has clearly shifted. Ellsbury, the first batter of the game, hits a HR 1-5, out otherwise, on Verlander's card. The roll is a "1". Ellsbury, who woke up in games 4 and 5 after being quiet in the first 3 games, cracks an rbi double in the 3rd to make it 2-0. But it stays 2-0 until the 7th as Verlander is very tough in Eric's park. With one out in the top of the 7th, Big Papi is up with 2 on and one out. He’s facing Joe Smith, the best reliever with the most anonymous name in the SOMBILLA. Papi hits a ballpark homer (1-5) and rolls a "1" for the three-run blast, Arnie jumps up and screams (without breaking anything), then apologizes to Eric, who is very gracious. Eric scores a run in the 7th, but it's too little too late. Even Susan was rooting for Arnie.
North Dakota wins series 4
games to 1
North Dakota wins its first championship in 13 long years.
North Dakota's team ERA over the last three games in Eric's park was 0.90.
Adams, J. Johnson, Marshall, Bell, Melancon and C. Lee combined to pitch 14 2/3
innings in relief over the whole series, giving up just one earned run
(0.69), On offense, ND had a balanced attack, led by Red Sox stars
Ellsbury (.348, 4 runs, 6 rbi, 1 HR), Ortiz (2 HR, 8 rbi) and Pedroia (.313, 2
HR, 7 rbi). Eric definitely did not have the better rolling, especially as the
series wore on.
Minutes of Annual Meeting and Draft March 30, 2013
1. Dues. Eric, Randy and Jed still owe me $10.00. I accept PayPal! Send to arnold.pollinger@fmr.com
2. Awards Voting - 5 points for 1st place, 3 for 2nd place, 1 for 3rd place. Since managers cannot vote for their own players, 7 votes would be a unanimous vote. Thus, Manager of the Year was unanimous!
Kemp, FW 6 1 33
Ellsbury, ND 2 4 22
Pujols, ND 1 4 7
T. Hunter, CN 1 1 4
Ortiz, ND 1 3
A. Gonzalez, CH 3 3
Verlander, CH 6 1 33
Halladay, BC 2 3 19
Haren, ND 3 1 10
Kershaw, FW 1 2 5
Cueto, ND 4 4
Lincecum, CH 1 1
Arnie 7 35
Eric 1 4 1 18
Jed 3 2 11
Randy 1 3 6
Harold 1 1
Robin 1 1
3. Presentation of the Richman Cup by last year's champion, Eric to this year’s champion, Arnie
People were wondering what has become of all the past photos of such presentations that Robin always seems to take. These will be posted online at some point before we all die.
4. Rule change proposals
a. Pitchers’ hitting cards. By a vote of 6-1 (Randy said he wanted to ‘revisit’ the proposal and abstained), the league authorized usage of the pitchers’ hitting cards. We clarified that
· these cards are limited just like any other limited hitter (42% of AB + BB on front of card)
· injuries due to rolling on an injury on the pitcher’s hitting card will count, but with a maximum of 6 games for an injury per pitcher.
· Pitchers’ innings rules still apply (this is from my notes; I am not exactly sure what we were getting at).
Harold commented that he thought it was absurd that these cards would not be available in the regular draft this year, but that was out of necessity, since we didn’t know if they would be voted in. Next year, they will be available to be drafted as mutant hitters in the draft.
b. Bonus players. These were the very limited players (down to 1 AB and 1 IP) whom Strat-O gave cards to for the first time this year. It was decided ahead of time via e-mail that we would not be using them this year, so we voted on whether they’d be available next year. There were two proposals.
1) First, it was proposed that bonus players be available and used for all purposes (to be drafted as well as for carded players already on your team. This was voted down 7-1 (Harold the lone vote)
2) Next, Tom proposed that we vote on whether bonus players would be eligible via draft only (that is, anyone who had a carded bonus player would not be able to use him, but new bonus players could be drafted). The league voted this down, 6-2.
c. Unlimited batters. A proposal was made to increase the cutoff for unlimited hitters from 350 plate appearances to 400 plate appearances. Those with 350-399 plate appearances would be subject to the 42% rule. The change would begin next year (i.e., for the 2014-2015 SOMBILLA season). The proposal passed by a narrow vote of 4-3 (with one abstention).
d. Draftmaggeddon Because Harold and Tom finished within 3 games of one another for the first pick in the draft, but Tom also finished within 3 games of Robin and Jeff, who did not finish within 3 games of Harold, we were left with a complicated scenario that Tom proposed, which I finally came around to endorse.
Not to be outdone by himself, Tom also proposed a new draft rule – the 3-5-6 rule whereby if 6th place is within 3 games of 7th place and 5 games of 8th place all three would be in a rolloff for the first pick. Similarly, if the 5th place team was within 3 games of 6th place, 4 games of 7th and 6 games of 8th place, all four teams would rolloff for the first pick. This proposal was defeated 5-3 after it was pointed out that under this proposal, Robin, who missed the playoffs by just one game one year, would have had a shot at the first pick overall. We thanked Tom for his creativity and the Commissioner will codify the Draftmaggeddon that we did adopt into the Bylaws.
e. Two catchers on the roster – Randy proposed that all teams must have a minimum of two players with a catcher rating on their 25-man roster (exception is a catcher is injured and there is no replacement on the 45-man roster) because it is required in real baseball. Nobody denied this of course, but it was argued that there are plenty of things we do in the SOMBILLA that aren’t like real baseball. For example, 5-man rotations, roster freezes, waiver eligibility, pitcher injuries (other than those due to hitting).
Eric successfully tabled this motion to allow the league to come up with a list of such items that we could then debate over the merits of this catcher rule vs the others (presumably via e-mail). It was decided to do this list of ideas by July 1. Oops. I then extended that to July 31, but received no response, so we will need to debate/resolve this via e-mail during August. After all, Randy’s proposal deserves a final vote.
f. 26th man. – Eric proposed that the 26th man can be different for each of the last three series you are eligible to use 26 men. This proposal passed 5-3! An addendum to allow this new rule only for those who voted in favor of the rule was shouted down and no vote was taken.
g. Draft – Tom proposed a 5-minute break after the 6th round of the draft. This passed 7-1 (only Arnie was against it). Presumably this is now a permanent rule.
5. Card burning. The league very much wanted to burn A-Rod. But he is usable for Tom. After Harold promised to snail mail his copy of A-Rod to Tom, Tom agreed to the burning. (Robin adds that Ryan Braun is the early front-runner for next year’s burning – only because ‘banned for life’ A-Rod won’t have a card).
6. Draft Notes
One trade was made on draft day, kind of by accident when Jed made another attempt to draft someone already on someone else’s roster (see Encarnacion in ’08), when he tried to draft Arencibia off of Eric’s roster. The two then worked a trade whereby Jed got Arencibia anyway and Eric took Jed’s 9th round pick (used to draft F. Morales).
Retread report.
· The first redrafted player taken was in the 3rd round when Harold drafted Jeff Samardjia, whom Tom drafted four years ago (see Tom’s writeup of the 2009 draft later in this newsletter).
· Also in the 3rd round Arnie drafted Jim Johnson, formerly of Eric’s team
· Robin snagged former A51 reliever Bellisario in the 4th round.
· Eric picked up former ND farmhand Chris Tillman in the 4th
· Former FW shortstop S. Drew was taken by Tom in the 7th.
· Jeff picked up Jed’s former pitcher Harang in the 7th.
· Jed then picked up former FW reliever Joe Nathan in the 7th.
· Not to be outdone, FW picked up former BC reliever O’Day in the 7th
· Harold drafted Robin’s former starter W. Davis in the 8th.
· Jeff picked up former C for Eric Pierzynski in the 10th.
· Eric drafted former CN OF Cody Ross in the 10th
THOUGHTS WHILE THINKING ABOUT THE SUMMER NEWSLETTER
SUMMER STUDY NO. 1 – Home/Away Advantage
Triggered by Jed’s incredible home/away split of the past two seasons, I decided to do a more in-depth analyses of the SOMBILLA’s home-field advantage.
As you may recall, it was determined in May that Jed set the record last year for most home wins minus away wins. In 2011-2012, he tied with Eric and ND for the best home record - 18-10. But he was dead last with an away record of 8-20, for a +10 home > away differential. He also led the league this past year with a +7 differential. Jed’s is a noble record on some level. (In theory, his team was really bad, likely the worst in the league in a neutral park based on his away record, but he chose the perfect park for his team to maximize its potential.
An odder record is the reverse - the team with the best Road wins > Home
wins record. I guess that would prove who was the most inept manager at
choosing a ballpark. This reverse record was also set last year - by
Harold. He led the league with a 19-9 away record, but was last with only
an 11-17 record at home, a -8 differential. He also had the worse home record
this year (see below) and led the league at -3 away > home differential.
Harold may need to rethink his “if I’m going to lose anyway, I want to have
fun” strategy at picking his park.
We have readily accessible data on home/away records from the league’s website (‘What? We have a website?’) going back to the ’96-97 season, 17 full seasons. I could probably go up into the attic on this 95 degree day and dig up the data for prior years, but I don’t want to do that and you can’t make me. Anyway, below is a table showing every SOMBILLA manager’s home minus away wins per season for the past 17 years:
Despite managing in the league for only 7 of the past 17 seasons, Jed has at least twice as many home minus away wins as anyone else. And his average of 5.1 trounces everyone else. That, my leaguemates, is quite statistically significant. Jed is clearly the best manager in the league at maximizing home field advantage for his teams.
Other interesting facts – Tom is the league’s most equal home/away manager, winning one more game at home than away over 16 seasons. It doesn’t necessarily mean he is the worst (or 2nd worst) at maximizing home field advantage. I’m not exactly sure what it means. Other factors come into play here, especially with 8 managers bunched up between 0.2 and 1.8 home minus away wins per season. Away victories are greatly influenced by the quality of one’s team, being able to win at all parks. Home wins are influenced by quality of the team playing home games as well of course, but it can also be greatly influenced by maximizing the home field dimension advantage. Think of the parks you hate playing in because of match-up problems for your team, ballpark-homer wise.
I haven’t mentioned Clint, but I am impressed to see him significantly ahead of all managers in away wins minus home wins. I’m kind of at a loss here because I suspect Jed had something to do with choosing the parks when those two shared the team.
Finally, despite what I said about Tom and away wins above, I am still surprised to see North Dakota with less of a statistical home field advantage than almost everyone. Perhaps the annual 15,000 game pre-season computer simulation I do to choose a park is in vain. But I refuse to stop, ‘cause it’s fun.
Here is the data looking back at only the last 10 seasons:
Jed still leads of course, but Randy and Jeff are averaging more than two home wins more than away wins per season, so those guys appear to have learned how to obtain a nice home field advantage compared to ealier years . I’m last. Still not giving up my ballpark simulations.
And finally here is the data for just the past 5 seasons:
|
|
2013 |
2012 |
2011 |
2010 |
2009 |
Total 09-13 |
Average |
|
Jed |
7 |
10 |
3 |
8 |
1 |
29 |
5.8 |
|
Randy |
-1 |
0 |
2 |
7 |
4 |
12 |
4.0 |
|
Tom |
-2 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
7 |
7 |
3.5 |
|
Eric |
2 |
5 |
0 |
2 |
4 |
13 |
3.3 |
|
Jeff |
1 |
-1 |
-1 |
3 |
3 |
5 |
1.7 |
|
Arnie |
-1 |
4 |
-2 |
2 |
0 |
3 |
1.5 |
|
Robin |
-1 |
2 |
-4 |
1 |
1 |
-1 |
-0.3 |
|
Harold |
-3 |
-8 |
2 |
1 |
4 |
-4 |
-1.3 |
Jed has gotten even better, while Randy, Tom and Eric have figured it out! Harold has chosen some questionable parks for his teams over the past few seasons, and has paid the price. But at least he had fun doing it.
Here are the top 6 seasons of Home minus Away victories of all-time:
1. Jed 2011-2012 +10
2. Robin 1998-1999 +9
3. Jed 2009-2010 +8
4. Tom 2008-2009 +7
4. Randy 2009-2010 +7
4. .Jed 2012-2013 +7
Here are the top 5 seasons of Away minus Home victories of all-time:
1. Harold 2011-2012 -8
2. Eric 1996-1997 -6
2. Matt 1999-2000 -6
2. Robin 2001-2002 -6
2. Clint 2001-2002 -6
Until Harold’s record-breaking home ineptitude two years ago, it had been 10 years since any team had even 6 more away wins than home wins.
Here’s another chart – Standard Deviation. Think of that as a measure of volatility, or predictably. The lower the STD DEV the smaller the year-to-year variation:
|
|
STD DEV |
|
Robin |
3.52 |
|
Harold |
3.43 |
|
Matt |
3.38 |
|
Jed |
3.27 |
|
Tom |
3.05 |
|
Clint |
2.98 |
|
Randy |
2.84 |
|
Jeff |
2.82 |
|
Eric |
2.79 |
|
Arnie |
2.53 |
Over the past 17 seasons, Robin has been the most volatile/unpredictable, at least for Home-Away record, not temperament. Over the past 5 seasons, Harold’s home vs away record is the least predictable:
|
|
STD DEV |
|
Harold |
4.26 |
|
Jed |
3.31 |
|
Tom |
3.07 |
|
Randy |
2.87 |
|
Arnie |
2.15 |
|
Robin |
2.14 |
|
Jeff |
1.79 |
|
Eric |
1.74 |
Actually, I like this standard deviation stuff. Looking at all teams’ total wins and standard deviation of total wins (home + away) over the past five seasons:
|
|
2013 |
2012 |
2011 |
2010 |
2009 |
Ave Wins |
Std Dev |
|
Arnie |
37 |
32 |
32 |
20 |
34 |
31.0 |
6.48 |
|
Randy |
31 |
24 |
24 |
39 |
26 |
28.8 |
6.38 |
|
Robin |
25 |
30 |
14 |
19 |
25 |
22.6 |
6.19 |
|
Harold |
21 |
30 |
32 |
23 |
34 |
28.0 |
5.70 |
|
Jeff |
25 |
25 |
25 |
29 |
17 |
24.2 |
4.38 |
|
Eric |
32 |
31 |
36 |
34 |
26 |
31.8 |
3.77 |
|
Jed |
29 |
26 |
33 |
32 |
35 |
31.0 |
3.54 |
|
Tom |
24 |
26 |
28 |
28 |
27 |
26.6 |
1.67 |
Tom has been remarkably consistent over the past 5 seasons. His win totals range from 24-28, with a standard deviation of wins of less than half that of everyone else. I lead the volatility circus, aided greatly by the Flaming Earthworms’ 20-win 2009-2010 season.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SUMMER STUDY NO. 2 – BEST OF THE LAST 5 YEARS
For the next study, I returned to the Strat-O computer. I took each franchise’s players over the past 5 SOMBILLA seasons and let the computer choose the best 25 players, with no duplicate players (i.e, there is only one Albert Pujols on ND’s team, not five of them). Talk about a tough league! Yeah, I know we did this last year. I’m lazy, it’s relatively easy, and moderately interesting.
I let the computer decide which of the many duplicates were the best (based on the player’s computer draft position). It’s not exactly the same as last year – I have added in the 2012 cards, that is, the upcoming SOMBILLA season, yet to be played, and 2007 drops off. So the 5 MLB seasons are 2008-2012, featuring the last 4 SOMBILLA seasons, plus the upcoming one.
Because we are all focused on the upcoming season, here are the 2012 cards represented:
Bay City (Posey, Reddick, Scutaro, Headley, Jansen, Janssen)
Constantinople (Trout, Rosario, Willingham, Rodney, Dickey)
Future Wax (A. Ramirez, Ruiz, Braun, Stanton, McGee)
New Orleans (Desmond, Sale, Harvey, Street, Strasburg)
North Dakota (D. Murphy, Wieters, Beltran, Rollins, Kimbrel, J. Johnson)
Oceanus (Beltre, Medlen, Price)
The Cheddarmen (Y. Molina, Balfour, G. Gonzalez)
“What Eric Said” (Pierzynski, Andrus, Lawrie, Chapman, Lohse)
A couple of observations.
1. One would expect an even distribution of players from the five seasons. That is, the 2012 cards should have 1/5 of all the cards represented in the study, or 40 players (1/5 x 8 x 25). And indeed there 38 cards from the upcoming season (19%).
2. BC and ND have the most 2012 cards in the study, (6), Jed and Eric have the fewest (3). But you can’t necessarily draw many conclusions from that. A lot depends on the quality of each team’s 2007-2011 cards, making it ‘easier’ or ‘harder’ for one of their 2012 cards to break into the lineup.
So, what happened? Who has the best players over the past/present 5 years of the SOMBILLA? Using each team’s actual ballpark from the middle (‘10-11) season of the five, and a 168-game schedule, here are the final standings:
WON LOST PCT GB
Future Wax 93 75 .554 ----
Oceanus 91 77 .542 2.0
North Dakota 87 81 .518 6.0
The Cheddarmen 84 84 .500 9.0
Constantinople 81 87 .482 12.0
What Eric Said 80 88 .476 13.0
New Orleans 79 89 .470 14.0
Bay City 77 91 .458 16.0
Fairly good parity here, with only two teams able to win 90+ games. No doubt some of these results can be attributed to the vagaries of ballparks chosen, whether appropriate or not. But the league was only .513 at home, with Oceanus by far the best home team (51-33, big surprise – see study #1) and RAT the best road team (also 51-33).
Against the best pitchers over the past 5 years, only 3 players were able to hit over .300:
----BATTING AVERAGE----
J.Hamilton RAT .328 (2010 cards)
M.Ramirez CHE .317 (2008)
I.Suzuki NEW .313 (2009)
B.Posey BAY .299 (2012)
Y.Molina CHE .296 (2012)
M.Trout CON .289 (2012
A.Beltre OCE .287 (2012)
M.Kemp RAT .277 (2011)
H.Ramirez NDK .276 (2008)
M.Teixeira WES .275 (2008)
D.Pedroia NDK .270 (2011)
J.Ellsbury NDK .269 (2011)
But Jose Bautista (2010 card) had a good year against the SOMBILLA’s best pitchers over the last 5 years!
--------HOMERUNS------- -----RUNS BATTED IN----
J.Bautista (2010) OCE 66 J.Bautista OCE 137
M.Reynolds (2009) NDK 49 V.Wells OCE 121
A.Pujols (2009) NDK 46 M.Kemp RAT 117
M.Ramirez (2008) CHE 45 A.Pujols NDK 113
V.Wells (2010) OCE 43 M.Reynolds NDK 110
G.Stanton (2012) RAT 40 R.Zimmerman CHE 108
M.Kemp (2011) RAT 38 J.Werth (2009)CHE 104
J.Werth (2009) CHE 38 P.Fielder CHE 100
J.Bay (2009) CON 35 M.Ramirez CHE 98
J.Hardy (2011) OCE 34 J.Willingham(2012)CON 93
P.Fielder (2009) CHE 34 G.Stanton RAT 92
R.Zimmerman(2009) CHE 34 Y.Molina CHE 91
Here are the MVP and all-star voting:
MVP AWARD J.Bautista(OCE) 405
M.Kemp(RAT) 357
V.Wells(OCE) 205
A.Pujols(NDK) 133
M.Ramirez(CHE) 98
ALL-STAR SELECTIONS BY POSITIONC Y.Molina(DBM) 1,720,572
1B A.Pujols(NDK) 3,028,604
2B D.Pedroia(NDK) 2,189,988
3B M.Reynolds(NDK) 2,699,630
SS H.Ramirez(NDK) 2,521,228
LF M.Ramirez(CHE) 3,025,627
CF M.Kemp(RAT) 3,311,426
RF J.Bautista(OCE) 4,762,673
Pitching:
----------WINS---------
C.Hamels (2011) RAT 19-8
C.Sabathia (2008) CON 19-13
I.Kennedy (2011) NDK 17-9
J.Verlander(2011) CHE 17-10
C.Kershaw (2011) RAT 16-9
Z.Greinke (2009) RAT 15-8
R.Halladay (2011) BAY 15-13
A.Wainwright(2010) NDK 15-13
J.Jurrjens (2009) BAY 15-14
R.Dempster (2008) CHE 15-14
----------ERA----------
R.Harden (2008) RAT 3.29
C.Hamels RAT 3.38
A.Wainwright NDK 3.53
J.Vazquez (2009) WES 3.57
C.Carpenter (2009) NEW 3.60
C.Kershaw RAT 3.66
Z.Greinke RAT 3.66
J.Verlander CHE 3.69
C.Buchholz (2010) WES 4.00
J.Jurrjens BAY 4.02
R. Hellickson (2011)WES 4.13
-----SAVES---------
H.Kuo (2010) BAY 39
J.Nathan (2008) RAT 39
A.Chapman(2012) WES 39
R.Soriano(2010) CHE 37
A.Bailey (2009) OCE 36
C.Kimbrel(2012) NDK 35
F.Rodney (2012) CON 34
M.Rivera (2008) NEW 33
Finally, Cy Young voting:
CY YOUNG AWARDA.Bailey(OCE) 114
C.Hamels(RAT) 96
H.Kuo(BAY) 51
J.Verlander(DBM) 18
R.Harden(RAT) 8
Playoffs (note the interesting rematch of last year’s SOMBILLA playoffs, with both series an exact reversal of what happened in real life)
Future Wax 9 The Cheddarmen 3
Future Wax 3 The Cheddarmen 2
Future Wax 3 The Cheddarmen 1
Future Wax 11 The Cheddarmen 2
Future Wax wins series 4 games to 0
(Kemp .556, 3 HR, 5 RBI, Thome .357, 3 HR, 6 RBI)
Oceanus 10 North Dakota 1
North Dakota 8 Oceanus 4
Oceanus 12 North Dakota 4
Oceanus 3 North Dakota 1
North Dakota 12 Oceanus 8
North Dakota 9 Oceanus 3
Oceanus 5 North Dakota 4
Oceanus wins series 4 games to 3
(Wells .393, 4 HR, 11 RBI, Hardy .407, 4 HR, 10 RBI)
World Series: - Best of the Last 5 Years:
Future Wax 3 Oceanus 1
Future Wax 3 Oceanus 2
Future Wax 6 Oceanus 5
Future Wax 8 Oceanus 3
Future Wax wins World Series (for the second time in a row for the ‘last 5’ leagues) 4 games to 0
MVP Aaron Hill (2009 card) .375, 2 HR, 5 RBI
-------------------------------------------------------------
SUMMER STUDY NO. 3 – THE 2009 DRAFT
In what has now become a summer tradition, Tom Kinney presents his fourth annual 4-year retrospective draft analysis (edited by Arnie & Robin):
It is time for the 4-year draft retrospective analysis of the 2009 (Cards 2008) draft. As I am writing this it is late July and as usual a very busy summer. We have 4 SOMBILLA Seasons, but note that we have partial or no data for the following seasons:
- Future Wax did not submit stats for the 2008 season as his consecutive playoff streak was broken and he then decided to repeat not doing stats in 2010 SOMBILLA season.
- Eric reported for 2008 (48 games).
- Jeff reported for 2008 (52 games)
- Harold reported for 2011 (52 games), 2010 (24 games), 2009 (40 games)
As a result, some of these teams’ players may lose out in the counting statistics (Wins, Saves, HRs, RBIs, SBs) and be more maligned than they deserve. (Arnie note: maligning those who don’t do their stats does have a long tradition in the SOMBILLA.)
Round 1:
|
1 Jeff - Evan Longoria |
.246 / .323 / .401 / .724 (811 PA), 33 HR, 112 RBI, 12 SB |
Still Owned |
|
2 RAT - Jay Bruce |
.228 / .296 / .302 / .598 (159 PA), 3 HR, 10 RBI, 0 SB |
Still Owned |
|
3. Eric - Ryan Dempster |
8-11, 0 SV, 5.90 ERA, 129 K (157 IP) |
Kept for more than 1 year |
|
4. Robin - Travis Snider |
.429 / .467 / .533 / 1 (15 PA), 0 HR, 0 RBI, 0 SB |
Still Owned |
|
5. Arnie - Cliff Lee |
8-6, 0 SV, 3.92 ERA, 102 K (144.2 IP) |
Still Owned |
|
6. Jed - Ricky Nolasco |
7-6, 0 SV, 5.65 ERA, 148 K (135.1 IP) |
Kept for more than 1 year |
|
7. Harold - Hiroki Kuroda |
10-17, 0 SV, 6.24 ERA, 146 K (219.1 IP) |
Still Owned |
|
8. Tom - Nate McLouth |
.256 / .341 / .379 / .72 (132 PA), 4 HR, 26 RBI, 0 SB |
Kept for more than 1 year |
Best Pick: Both Evan Longoria and Hiroki Kuroda did play in the SOMBILLA all four years, but Evan Longoria has to be the choice. He is a perennial 1 at third and the #2 Lamanna choice at his position for the near future, and the 4th best in the current set. It is surprising that his slash lines were not better given his performance in MLB, but I think anyone would take him #1 overall if there was a re-draft now.
Worst Pick: This is a battle between McLouth and Snider. Snider has almost no PA in the SOMBILLA, but he is still owned by Robin and struggling to fit into a real MLB lineup now with the Pirates. McLouth is on his 3rd MLB team but seems to have made himself useful for the surprising Orioles. Snider just edges him out as the worst pick.
Round 2:
|
1. Jeff - Taylor Teagarden |
.257 / .350 / .625 / .975 (40 PA), 4 HR, 10 RBI, 0 SB |
Kept for more than 1 year |
|
2. Robin - Chris Davis |
.256 / .267 / .481 / .748 (131 PA), 6 HR, 12 RBI, 0 SB |
Still Owned |
|
3. Eric - Jose Arredondo |
2-1, 3 SV, 2.45 ERA, 19 K (22 IP) |
Cut After One Year |
|
4. RAT - Max Scherzer |
2-0, 0 SV, 1.56 ERA, 22 K (17.1 IP) |
Still Owned |
|
5. Arnie - Grant Balfour |
1-4, 9 SV, 2.87 ERA, 42 K (37.2 IP) |
Traded |
|
6. Jed - Shin-Soo Choo |
.255 / .362 / .350 / .712 (500 PA), 14 HR, 52 RBI, 11 SB |
Still Owned |
|
7. Jeff - Joey Devine |
3-1, 3 SV, 3.37 ERA, 14 K (18.2 IP) |
Cut After One Year |
|
8. Tom - Matt Thornton |
4-7, 6 SV, 5.74 ERA, 68 K (64.1 IP) |
Kept for more than 1 year |
Best Pick: Upon first glance, Chris Davis wins this honor based almost entirely on a monster (historic) first half to the current MLB season. He has had one of best power strokes amongst young players, but his approach has led to a low contact rate. I have heard multiple stories crediting the Baltimore hitting coach, change of scenery and a player turning 27 and “getting it”. However, since the All Star Break (when I started this) he has struck out 20 times (more than any other player). (Robin note: I blame Cano for picking him in the HR Derby). But he could go 0 for second half and still have a good year. Shin-Soo Choo earns a tie as both a consistent performer and for his 2013 MLB season. Choo has put together a dominant performance against right handed pitching (.341/.470/.600) and has stayed in CF for a contending team.
Worst Pick: This round is traditionally one for teams with aspirations to draft the best available relievers. Two of these were cut immediately, and so I decided to select Jeff’s entire round as the worst since he had one of those ‘one year only’ relievers, but he also took a catcher that had one limited card but never lived up to being his catcher of the future. Take your pick on which of these two players is the worst pick in this round.
Other: Max Scherzer has not been bad, but has never put together a great year until this year. He always seemed to have the stuff, but he could not put together that year. Right now, he looks to be top 10 and if this is a sign of things to come he could end up as the best pick of this round if Chris Davis proves to be a one-year wonder. (Robin note: He hit 33 HR and batted .290 in 2012. So he may make my team this year – not a one year wonder).
Round 3:
|
1. Jeff - Brad Ziegler |
1-2, 1 SV, 4.56 ERA, 8 K (17.7 IP) |
Kept for more than 1 year |
|
2. RAT - Chris Volstad |
-, SV, ERA, K ( IP) |
Kept for more than 1 year |
|
3. RAT - Nelson Cruz |
.294 / .355 / .530 / .885 (515 PA), 33 HR, 101 RBI, 22 SB |
Traded for Hamilton |
|
4. Robin - Pablo Sandoval |
.289 / .332 / .521 / .853 (413 PA), 22 HR, 62 RBI, 0 SB |
Still Owned |
|
5. Arnie - Chad Qualls |
1-2, 0 SV, 7.55 ERA, 32 K (31 IP) |
Kept for more than 1 year |
|
6. Tom - Xavier Nady |
.308 / .360 / .471 / .831 (172 PA), 7 HR, 36 RBI, 1 SB |
Cut After One Year |
|
7. Harold - Jesse Litsch |
2-4, 0 SV, 6.37 ERA, 18 K (53.7 IP) |
Cut After One Year |
|
8. Jeff - Jon Lester |
12-15, 0 SV, 4.34 ERA, 215 K (280 IP) |
Still Owned |
Best Pick: Nelson Cruz has been a solid contributor mostly for Arnie, who traded first round pick Josh Hamilton for Cruz a year into his service. Josh Hamilton had been the best pick of the first round in last year’s draft analysis. I have to tip my cap to Wax for choosing the best contributor in the round and then converted him for a quality former first round pick a year after drafting him. He is now part of the biogenesis scandal and Hamilton’s future is a ???... (but that is for a future analyses if I ever do a 10-year lookback.)
Worst Pick: Chris Volstad was taken as a starter of the future for Wax and he never developed and was cut unused and unwanted. This gives Future Wax the best and worst pick in the same round, which is a strange sort of accomplishment. Imagine if they had had only one pick and had taken Volstad…
Other: Jon Lester has become a staff anchor for the Red Sox and despite being left handed will continue to be a contributor to whatever Jeff is calling his team. Kung Fu Panda deserves a mention for both a great nickname, two MLB World Series rings and a round of applause for an athlete that looks like me (round) that can really pick the ball and also is a real contributor with the stick.
Round 4:
|
1. Jeff - Mike Mussina |
5-6, 0 SV, 5.22 ERA, 47 K (86.3 IP) |
Cut After One Year |
|
2. Robin - Craig Breslow |
0-1, 1 SV, 7.91 ERA, 19 K (3.7 IP) |
Kept for more than 1 year |
|
3. Eric - Jim Johnson |
2-0, 6 SV, .6.67 ERA, 14 K (27 IP) |
Cut After One Year |
|
4. RAT - J.P. Howell |
0-1, 1 SV, 8.61 ERA, 33 K (3.3 IP) |
Kept for more than 1 year |
|
5. Arnie - John Danks |
2-5, 0 SV, 5.57 ERA, 67 K (74.3 IP) |
Kept for more than 1 year |
|
6. Jed - Cory Wade |
3-0, 3 SV, 3.11 ERA, 17 K (26 IP) |
Cut After One Year |
|
7. Harold – Scott Baker |
3-6, 0 SV, 4.44 ERA, 31 K (54.7 IP) |
Kept for more than 1 year |
|
8. Tom - Taylor Buchholz |
2-2, 2 SV, 2.49 ERA, 26 K (25.3 IP) |
Cut After One Year |
Best Pick: This round featured 6 relievers and two starters, all of who were cut. Jim Johnson not only performed for Eric but has become a very dependable real-world closer for a surprisingly competitive Orioles. He is now back in the SOMBILLA (redrafted by Arnie last year) and is the only one of the round to still have value if we were drafting today.
Worst Pick: It is hard to choose a worst pick in a round like this one, but I give it a tie to the two lefty specialists who just got hammered in the SOMBILLA – Craig Breslow and JP Howell.
Other: Jeff redrafted Mike Mussina as he put together an inning-eating year, one year after being cut by Jeff. He knew it was one year (Arnie: we think) but Jeff needed the innings which is a common lament…
Round 5:
|
1. Jeff - Jesse Carlson |
2-1, 3 SV, 3.23 ERA, 16 K (16.7 IP) |
Kept for more than 1 year |
|
2. RAT - Armando Galarraga |
0-1, 1 SV, 5.11 ERA, 22 K (37 IP) |
Cut After One Year |
|
3. Eric - Aubrey Huff |
.223 / .241 / .421 / .662 (133 PA), 6 HR, 14 RBI, 0 SB |
Cut After One Year |
|
4. Robin - Mike Fontenot |
.297 / .383 / .391 / .774 (115 PA), 2 HR, 12 RBI, 2 SB |
Kept for more than 1 year |
|
5. Arnie - Ryan Doumit |
.187 / .218 / .282 / .5 (78 PA), 0 HR, 9 RBI, 0 SB |
Kept for more than 1 year |
|
6. Jed - Geoff Geary |
0-2, 2 SV, 2.57 ERA, 11 K (21 IP) |
Cut After One Year |
|
7. Harold - Elijah Dukes |
.319 / .466 / .420 / .886 (88 PA), 2 HR, 9 RBI, 4 SB |
Cut After One Year |
|
8. Tom - Mike Aviles |
.369 / .414 / .571 / .985 (70 PA), 1 HR, 9 RBI, 3 SB |
Kept for more than 1 year |
Best Pick: Mike Aviles gets the nod as the lefty killer that put up the best splits, edging out the other part timers picked up in this round.
Worst Pick: Elijah Dukes’s temperament won him this dishonor. Enough said about Mr. Dukes.
Round 6:
|
1. Jeff - Clay Buchholz |
6-4, 0 SV, 4.632 ERA, 52 K (68 IP) |
Still Owned |
|
2. Robin - Kevin Gregg |
0-0, 1 SV, 3.934 ERA, 10 K (18.3 IP) |
Kept for more than 1 year |
|
3. Eric - Alexei Ramirez |
.287 / .304 / .404 / .708 (171 PA), 5 HR, 20 RBI, 3 SB |
Traded |
|
4. RAT - Frank Francisco |
0-0, 1 SV, 1.895 ERA, 19 K (19 IP) |
Kept for more than 1 year |
|
5. Arnie - Johnny Cueto |
6-2, 0 SV, 2.301 ERA, 36 K (58.6666666666667 IP) |
Still Owned |
|
6. Jed - Ryan Theriot |
.283 / .358 / .296 / .654 (162 PA), 0 HR, 12 RBI, 5 SB |
Cut After One Year |
|
7. Harold - Gavin Floyd |
14-12, 0 SV, 4.226 ERA, 147 K (208.7 IP) |
Still Owned |
|
8. Tom - Denard Span |
.326 / .430 / .412 / .842 (279 PA), 5 HR, 28 RBI, 7 SB |
Kept for more than 1 year |
Best Pick: If I had analyzed this round before this season, Cueto would be my choice hands down. But Clay Buchholz has once again shown that he can be a front-line starter. Now the real question is when will either of these two flashy starters put together several years of health and effectiveness. Best bets of the round though.
Worst Pick: Ryan Theriot is the one-year wonder that really never had any power. He had one serviceable season and even then the Cardinals were quick to kick him to the curb, and he never caught on or hit again for any period of time.
Other: Span was my leadoff guy that was going to play center with Andruw Jones retiring, (although Jones did play well for other SOMBILLA teams after this) . He (Span) was serviceable but eventually he was pushed off the worst team in the league. He also proved a disappointment in Washington this year and may never live up to the hopes and expectations of his 2008 call up.
Round 7:
|
1. Jeff - Darren Oliver |
1-6, 5 SV, 3.29 ERA, 48 K (65.6666666666666 IP) |
Still Owned |
|
2. RAT - Clayton Kershaw |
12-7, 0 SV, 3.23 ERA, 181 K (189.333333333333 IP) |
Still Owned |
|
3. Eric - Chris Dickerson |
.293 / .370 / .522 / .892 (46 PA), 2 HR, 12 RBI, 4 SB |
Cut After One Year |
|
4. Robin - Max Ramirez |
.250 / .250 / .375 / .625 (8 PA), 0 HR, 1 RBI, 0 SB |
Cut After One Year |
|
5. Arnie - Daniel Murphy |
.241 / .359 / .297 / .656 (64 PA), 0 HR, 7 RBI, 0 SB |
Cut After One Year |
|
6. Tom - Jeff Samardzjia |
-, SV, ERA, K ( IP) |
Cut After One Year |
|
7. Harold - Steven Shell |
0-0, 0 SV, 5.41 ERA, 3 K (13.3 IP) |
Cut After One Year |
|
8. Tom - John Baker |
.405 / .500 / .568 / 1.068 (44 PA), 1 HR, 4 RBI, 0 SB |
Kept for more than 1 year |
Best Pick: Clayton Kershaw just blows everyone away. He is arguably top 5 and maybe the pitcher any MLB GM would start a staff with if they could have anyone now. He is a player that not only lived up to expectations, but increased his control and presence in the majors. Of course, if he was right handed, he would be even more valuable.
Worst Pick: Jeff Samardzjia was cut when he was sent to the bullpen in MLB and did not look good there. Once Epstein took over, his career turned around and before I could get him back Harold drafted him in the last draft. Under Harold’s golden touch with pitchers, it would not surprise me if he was not a perennial top 30 pitcher and usable in a SOMBILLA rotation.
Round 8:
|
1. Harold - Jerry Blevins |
0-0, 0 SV, 2.90 ERA, 3 K (9.3 IP) |
Cut After One Year |
|
2. Robin – Marlon Byrd |
.237 / .283 / .324 / .607 (346 PA), 2 HR, 26 RBI, 7 SB |
Kept for more than 1 year |
|
3. Eric - Justin Masterson |
1-3, 0 SV, 2.74 ERA, 29 K (42.6666666666667 IP) |
Still Owned |
|
4. RAT - Ronnie Belliard |
.267 / .353 / .412 / .765 (51 PA), 2 HR, 5 RBI, 0 SB |
Cut After One Year |
|
5. Arnie - Jerry Hairston |
.257 / .325 / .333 / .658 (120 PA), 0 HR, 10 RBI, 2 SB |
Cut After One Year |
|
6. Jed - Kevin Slowey |
-, SV, ERA, K ( IP) |
Kept for more than 1 year |
|
7. Harold - Dan Wheeler |
0-1, 0 SV, 6.34 ERA, 11 K (21.3 IP) |
Cut After One Year |
|
8. Tom – Brandon Morrow |
-, SV, ERA, K ( IP) |
Cut After One Year |
Best Pick: Justin Masterson by the virtue of being kept. He developed a better slider to left handed pitchers this year and has always been dominant against right handed hitters. Some thought he had already had his career year in the SOMBILLA (2011 cards) and he got used as a part time starter. Now it looks like he will be a true #1 if he can keep up his current performance through the end of the 2013.
Worst Pick: Brandon Morrow had the tools and the K ability, but his owner could not wait and cut him in the waiver fiasco event that happens after the draft and then could not get him back. He has been inconsistent in real life and may never pitch for a contender in the SOMBILLA. Back-to-back bad starter picks to CN.
Round 9-14:
|
1. Jeff - Carlos Gonzalez |
.252 / .286 / .380 / .666 (503 PA), 14 HR, 69 RBI, 18 SB |
Still Owned |
|
2. RAT - Will Ohman |
1-0, 0 SV, 2.40 ERA, 8 K (15 IP) |
Cut After One Year |
|
3. Eric - Kosuke Fukudome |
/ / / 0 ( PA), HR, RBI, SB |
Kept for more than 1 year |
|
4. Robin - Jed Lowrie |
/ / / 0 ( PA), HR, RBI, SB |
Cut After One Year |
|
5. Arnie - Mike Adams |
6-4, 21 SV, 2.55 ERA, 106 K (95.3666666666667 IP) |
Still Owned |
|
6. Jed - Nick Blackburn |
-, SV, ERA, K ( IP) |
Cut After One Year |
|
7. Harold - David Ross |
.191 / .292 / .348 / .64 (161 PA), 6 HR, 18 RBI, 0 SB |
Still Owned |
|
8. Tom - Brian Bruney |
0-0, 2 SV, 3.21 ERA, 18 K (14 IP) |
Cut After One Year |
|
1. Robin - Joe Crede |
.176 / .279 / .309 / .588 (136 PA), 3 HR, 8 RBI, 0 SB |
Cut After One Year |
|
2. Eric - Brian Giles |
.312 / .385 / .429 / .814 (226 PA), 6 HR, 14 RBI, 0 SB |
Cut After One Year |
|
3. RAT - Martin Prado |
.261 / .293 / .353 / .646 (249 PA), 4 HR, 24 RBI, 1 SB |
Kept for more than 1 year |
|
4. Arnie - Gabe Kapler |
.265 / .317 / .341 / .658 (126 PA), 1 HR, 10 RBI, 2 SB |
Kept for more than 1 year |
|
5. Jed - Chris Sampson |
4-1, 1 SV, 2.82 ERA, 17 K (38.3 IP) |
Cut After One Year |
|
6. Harold - Jason Kendall |
.220 / .264 / .321 / .585 (53 PA), 0 HR, 1 RBI, 0 SB |
Kept for more than 1 year |
|
7. Tom - Arthur Rhodes |
2-0, 1 SV, 4.62 ERA, 20 K (15.6 IP) |
Kept for more than 1 year |
|
1. RAT - Ryan Shealy |
.316 / .316 / .579 / .895 (19 PA), 1 HR, 3 RBI, 0 SB |
Cut After One Year |
|
2. Eric - Andy Sonnanstine |
-, SV, ERA, K ( IP) |
Cut After One Year |
|
3. Arnie - Chase Headley |
.276 / .346 / .376 / .722 (205 PA), 5 HR, 24 RBI, 6 SB |
Traded |
|
4. Jed - Emmanuel Burriss |
/ / / 0 ( PA), HR, RBI, SB |
Cut After One Year |
|
5. Harold - Jason Bartlett |
.286 / .329 / .384 / .713 (438 PA), 7 HR, 46 RBI, 16 SB |
Kept for more than 1 year |
|
6. Tom - Ramon Santiago |
.313 / .459 / .262 / .721 (61 PA), 0 HR, 3 RBI, 0 SB |
Cut After One Year |
|
1. Arnie - Sergio Romo |
9-1, 8 SV, 4.27 ERA, 59 K (59 IP) |
Still Owned |
|
2. Jed - Brett Gardner |
.241 / .336 / .313 / .649 (214 PA), 3 HR, 12 RBI, 18 SB |
Still Owned |
|
3. Harold - Ian Stewart |
/ / / 0 ( PA), HR, RBI, SB |
Kept for more than 1 year |
|
1. Jed - Mark DeRosa |
.285 / .358 / .438 / .796 (137 PA), 5 HR, 15 RBI, 0 SB |
Kept for more than 1 year |
|
1. Jed - Carlos Gomez |
/ / / 0 ( PA), HR, RBI, SB |
Kept for more than 1 year |
Best Pick: CarGo has been the best of what is one of the best late rounds I have ever seen. Mike Adams, while never a closer in MLB, has been one of the dominant relievers in various sets over the years. Chase Headley was picked up and traded to Robin for Carlos Beltran, who was a piece towards last year’s championship. Chase Headley is also staking a claim to being a top 5 3B for the foreseeable future. Sergio Romo is again a quality late round reliever picked up by Arnie. So it looks like the late rounds of this draft were mostly a North Dakota show of dominance into the deep dive of future prospects.
Worst Pick: Can you really be a bad pick this late. The players who never played? Or the ones that get cut right away without playing?
Other: Jed picked Carlos Gomez to end this draft and then never played him. At our last draft, Jed redrafted him in the 10th round. Will he play for him this time? He is better, he has a positive WAR (Wins Above Replacement) because of his defense, power and speed.
2008 Card Set Results:
|
Team |
Stats |
|
ARNIE |
.233 / .294 / .314 / .608 (344 PA), 1 HR, 33 RBI, 4 SB |
|
ERIC |
.279 / .336 / .437 / .773 (405 PA), 14 HR, 40 RBI, 4 SB |
|
Harold |
.282 / .355 / .352 / .707 (344 PA), 3 HR, 23 RBI, 12 SB |
|
JEFF |
.300 / .370 / .517 / .887 (211 PA), 11 HR, 43 RBI, 3 SB |
|
Jed |
.297 / .374 / .369 / .743 (390 PA), 7 HR, 40 RBI, 6 SB |
|
Robin |
.263 / .319 / .391 / .71 (653 PA), 13 HR, 57 RBI, 6 SB |
|
TSK |
.321 / .403 / .445 / .848 (596 PA), 15 HR, 92 RBI, 7 SB |
|
WAX |
.333 / .385 / .484 / .869 (192 PA), 4 HR, 33 RBI, 2 SB |
|
Team |
Stats |
|
ARNIE |
14-19, 10 SV, 5.05 ERA, 236 K (267.6 IP) |
|
ERIC |
12-7, 9 SV, 3.12 ERA, 107 K (141.3 IP) |
|
Harold |
14-20, 0 SV, 4.80 ERA, 123 K (279.3 IP) |
|
JEFF |
18-17, 7 SV, 4.07 ERA, 156 K (26.7 IP) |
|
Jed |
11-6, 6 SV, 3.93 ERA, 117 K (16.3 IP) |
|
Robin |
0-0, 2 SV, 3.76 ERA, 17 K (26.3 IP) |
|
TSK |
5-3, 6 SV, 3.43 ERA, 73 K (7.9 IP) |
|
WAX |
3-2, 3 SV, 4.63 ERA, 104 K (118.6 IP) |
Total Reported SOMBILLA Statistics:
|
Team |
Stats |
|
ARNIE |
.254 / .320 / .339 / .659 (593 PA), 6 HR, 60 RBI, 10 SB |
|
ERIC |
.281 / .326 / .427 / .753 (576 PA), 19 HR, 60 RBI, 7 SB |
|
Harold |
.265 / .332 / .376 / .708 (740 PA), 15 HR, 74 RBI, 20 SB |
|
JEFF |
.249 / .310 / .400 / .71 (1354 PA), 51 HR, 191 RBI, 30 SB |
|
Jed |
.260 / .355 / .346 / .701 (1013 PA), 22 HR, 91 RBI, 34 SB |
|
Robin |
.259 / .310 / .419 / .729 (1164 PA), 35 HR, 121 RBI, 9 SB |
|
TSK |
.317 / .404 / .431 / .835 (758 PA), 18 HR, 106 RBI, 11 SB |
|
WAX |
.274 / .329 / .444 / .773 (993 PA), 43 HR, 143 RBI, 23 SB |
|
Team |
Stats |
|
ARNIE |
33-24, 38 SV, 3.90 ERA, 444 K (50.6 IP) |
|
ERIC |
13-15, 9 SV, 4.49 ERA, 191 K (248.6 IP) |
|
Harold |
29-40, 0 SV, 5.29 ERA, 359 K (58.3 IP) |
|
JEFF |
30-35, 12 SV, 4.33 ERA, 400 K (553 IP) |
|
Jed |
14-9, 6 SV, 4.57 ERA, 193 K (22.6 IP) |
|
Robin |
0-1, 2 SV, 6.43 ERA, 29 K (49 IP) |
|
TSK |
8-9, 11 SV, 4.60 ERA, 132 K (119 IP) |
|
WAX |
15-9, 3 SV, 3.77 ERA, 285 K (308 IP) |
Facts about the Draft: This was the last year before the new waiver wire process. Three teams decided to pick only 10 players – Eric, Robin and Jeff. 21 of the 90 players drafted have been continuously owned since the draft. Eric apparently disliked this draft because he drafted only 10 and still owns only 1 of them (plus Balfour who he traded for). Jeff drafted only 10, but he has kept more than anyone else at 5 (Arnie sort of kept 7 in that he now has Cruz and he traded away Headley and Balfour, who are both still owned in the league). 34 players were cut after the first year. Next year, I will do a summer study on these kind of numbers over the drafts that I analyzed and get some indication of what is an average year and what is an outlier…
Best Draft: This was closer than one would think in that a number of good players were spread out amongst various teams – Wax (Kershaw, Cruz, Scherzer, Bruce), Robin (Davis, Sandoval, Headley sort of), and Arnie (Lee, Balfour, Cueto, Adams, Headley, Romo) But I had to hand the Best Draft crown to Jeff, who picked first overall and picked Longoria, Teagarden, Devine, Ziegler, Lester, Mussina, Carlson, Buchholz, Oliver and CarGo… Jeff had a well balanced draft picking up 2 exceptional hitters, 2 solid front line starting pitchers and a mess of useful relievers.
Worst Draft: CN Manatees do not still own any of the players drafted. He squandered his draft on short term gains picking up: McLouth, Thornton, Nady, T. Buchholz, Aviles, Span, Samardzjia, Baker, Morrow, Bruney, Rhodes and Santiago.
SUMMER STUDY NO. 4 BEST PLAYERS IN THE SOMBILLA
So, if you could draft the absolute best players in MLB (and thus, the SOMBILLA) for the upcoming season, who would you draft? I let the computer draft a 25-man team from all players in MLB based on the 2012 cards, and this is the team it came up with.
DRAFT YEAR TEAM BAL AB DO TR HR BAVG BB K'S RBI OB% SL%
Mike Trout 1 2012 LAA 4R 559 27 8 30 .326 67 139 83 .399 .564
Miguel Cabrera 4 2012 DEA 4R 622 40 0 44 .330 66 98 139 .393 .606
Yadier Molina 5 2012 SLN 3L 505 28 0 22 .315 45 55 76 .373 .501
Ryan Braun 6 2012 MLN 5L 598 36 3 41 .319 63 128 112 .391 .595
Edwin Encarnacion 7 2012 TOA 3L 542 24 0 42 .280 84 94 110 .384 .557
Giancarlo Stanton 8 2012 MMN 1L 449 30 1 37 .290 46 143 86 .361 .608
Robinson Cano 9 2012 NYA 8R 627 48 1 33 .313 61 96 94 .379 .550
Ian Desmond 11 2012 WAN 1L 513 33 2 25 .292 30 113 73 .335 .511
Jay Bruce 16 2012 CIN 1R 560 35 5 34 .252 62 155 99 .327 .514
Buster Posey 18 2012 SFN 9L 530 39 1 24 .336 69 96 103 .408 .549
Josh Hamilton 23 2012 TEA 1R 562 31 2 43 .285 60 162 128 .354 .577
Pete Kozma 24 2012 SLN E 72 5 3 2 .333 7 19 14 .383 .569
Brandon Snyder 25 2012 TEA 6L 65 2 0 3 .277 3 26 9 .309 .446
Catcher 1b 2b 3b ss lf cf rf ARM
Trout 1e5 1e5 1e5 +1
Cabrera 4e14 4e14
Molina 1e1 -4t4p2 4e25
Braun 3e7 +0
Encarnacion 3e7 4e65 4e25 +1
Stanton 3e10 -3
Cano 1e6
Desmond 2e19
Bruce 1e6 -4
Posey 2e4 -1t6p0 3e13
Hamilton 2e9 3e9 3e9 -2
Kozma 4e22 3e22
Snyder 4e16 +2t20p0 3e13 4e25 4e16 4e16 +0
DRAFT BAL WON LOST ERA IP HITS WALKS K'S HR GS SV
Fernando Rodney 2 E 2 2 .60 75 43 15 76 2 0 48
Clayton Kershaw 3 1R 14 9 2.53 228 170 63 229 16 33 0
Kris Medlen 10 E 10 1 1.57 138 103 23 120 6 12 1
Gio Gonzalez 12 4R 21 8 2.89 199 149 76 207 9 32 0
Justin Verlander 13 E 17 8 2.64 238 192 60 239 19 33 0
Craig Kimbrel 14 1L 3 1 1.01 63 27 14 116 3 0 42
Arondis Chapman 15 2L 5 5 1.51 72 35 23 122 4 0 38
Grant Balfour 17 3L 3 2 2.53 75 41 28 72 4 0 24
R.A. Dickey 19 1R 20 6 2.73 234 192 54 230 24 33 0
Huston Street 20 3L 2 1 1.85 39 17 11 47 2 0 23
Ryan Cook 21 4R 6 2 2.09 73 42 27 80 4 0 14
David Price 22 2L 20 5 2.56 211 173 59 205 16 31 0
No argument with Trout as first overall, but what’s up with Brandon Snyder as the final pick? Yes, that Brandon Snyder who got some playing time for the Sox this year at 3B. He was not someone I considered drafting (couldn’t hit well enough) and the collective wisdom of the SOMBILLA agreed with me. I guess the computer likes him because he plays 5 positions, but all-MLB? That’s seriously fucked up. (Robin note – maybe he was picked so that there would be a backup for every position. I feel compelled to point out that each team does have two or more catchers).
For the heck of it, I then had the computer draft another team. So, here is your 2nd team All SOMBILLA/MLB:
DRAFT YEAR TEAM BAL AB DO TR HR BAVG BB K'S RBI OB% SL%
Andrew McCutchen 1 2012 PIN 4L 593 29 6 31 .327 70 132 96 .400 .553
Joey Votto 2 2012 CIN 3R 374 44 0 14 .337 94 85 56 .474 .567
Adrian Beltre 4 2012 TEA 5R 604 33 2 36 .321 36 82 102 .359 .561
Josh Willingham 3 2012 MNA E 519 30 1 35 .260 76 141 110 .366 .524
Aaron Hill 5 2012 ARN 2R 609 44 6 26 .302 52 86 85 .360 .522
Josh Reddick 7 2012 OAA 1L 611 29 5 32 .242 55 151 85 .305 .463
Jimmy Rollins 9 2012 PHN 4R 632 33 5 23 .250 62 96 68 .316 .427
Carlos Ruiz 11 2012 PHN 1R 372 32 0 16 .325 29 50 68 .394 .540
Adam Dunn 15 2012 CHA 1L 539 19 0 41 .204 105 222 96 .333 .468
Wilin Rosario 20 2012 CON 8L 396 19 0 28 .270 25 99 71 .312 .530
Alfonso Soriano 21 2012 CHN 1R 561 33 2 32 .262 44 153 108 .322 .499
Catcher 1b 2b 3b ss lf cf rf ARM
McCutchen 1e1 +0
Votto 1e9
Beltre 1e10
Willingham 5e6 +1
Hill 2e6
Reddick 3e7 1e7 -5
Rollins 1e14
Ruiz 1e7 -1t3p3
Dunn 5e6 5e16 +2
Rosario 4e1 -1t19p7 5e30 5e65
Soriano 5e1 -2
DRAFT BAL WON LOST ERA IP HITS WALKS K'S HR GS SV
Johnny Cueto 6 3R 19 9 2.78 217 205 49 170 15 33 0
Kenley Jansen 8 2R 5 3 2.35 65 33 22 99 6 0 25
Matt Cain 10 5R 16 5 2.79 219 177 51 193 21 32 0
Felix Hernandez12 1R 13 9 3.06 232 209 56 223 14 33 0
Tom Wilhelmsen 13 3R 4 3 2.50 79 59 29 87 5 0 29
Jim Johnson 14 1R 2 1 2.49 69 55 15 41 3 0 51
Casey Janssen 16 7L 1 1 2.54 64 44 11 67 7 0 22
Jake McGee 17 9R 5 2 1.95 55 33 11 73 3 0 0
Brandon Beachy 18 3L 5 5 2.00 81 49 29 68 6 13 0
Sergio Romo 19 2L 4 2 1.79 55 37 10 63 5 0 14
Kyle Lohse 22 1R 16 3 2.86 211 192 38 143 19 33 0
J.J. Putz 23 E 1 5 2.82 54 45 11 65 4 0 32
Jonathan Papelbon 24 E 5 6 2.44 70 56 18 92 8 0 38
Cole Hamels 25 E 17 6 3.05 215 190 52 216 24 31 0
A Harold-esque 14 man pitching staff. Although not quite as good as the first team, this is still a great team that would likely win the SOMBILLA championship (despite having only ‘5’s in left field). Note that Soriano is not in the league. Here is the breakdown of SOMBILLA team by team players on the first and second team all-MLB as chosen by the Strat-O computer:
RAT (11)– Beachy, Braun, Bruce, Hamels, Hamilton, Hill, Kershaw, McCutchen, McGee, Ruiz, Stanton
Arnie (7) – Cueto, Encarnacion, J. Johnson, Kimbrel, Kozma, Rollins, Romo
Eric –(6) Balfour, G. Gonzalez, Y. Molina, Papelbon, Verlander, Wilhelmsen
Tom (6) – Cain, Dickey, Rodney, Rosario, Trout, Willingham
Jed (5)– Beltre, F. Hernandez, Medlen, D. Price, Votto
Robin (5) M. Cabrera, Jansen, Janssen, Posey, Reddick
Harold (5)– Cano, Desmond, Dunn, Putz, Street
Jeff (3) – Chapman, Cook, Lohse
With 11 of the top 50 players (at least according to the computer), perhaps Randy’s post-draft chest pounding may not have been all bluster after all.